On Tuesday (December 9th) in Asian trading, US crude oil was trading around $58.80 per barrel. The price decline was mainly due to the resumption of production at Iraq's West Qurna 2 oil field, which accounts for approximately 0.5% of global supply. Previously, production was significantly constrained due to an export pipeline leak, but the Iraqi energy department confirmed in the latest communications that production had returned to normal levels of approximately 460,000 barrels per day. This development quickly improved market expectations of improved supply, thus pushing oil prices to their biggest drop in nearly three weeks.

On the one hand, increased Iraqi production reinforced expectations of a looser supply environment. On the other hand, the dynamics of the conflict surrounding Russia and Ukraine could still trigger sudden supply disruptions, keeping risk premiums unstable. Furthermore, policy uncertainty in Venezuela could also affect future supply trends, making the market more susceptible to news-driven fluctuations. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is also closely watched.

From a daily chart perspective, crude oil prices recently experienced a significant pullback after touching the resistance level above $60/barrel, forming a large bearish candlestick, reflecting increased selling pressure. The current price has fallen back below the short-term moving average cluster, indicating weakening short-term momentum. The MACD indicator shows signs of a downward crossover near the zero line, suggesting that the momentum of the recent rebound is waning.

Crude oil's short-term (1-hour) trend has stalled, turning downwards and breaking through the important psychological level of $60. The moving average system is bearish, indicating a downward objective trend in the short term. Oil prices are currently consolidating weakly at low levels, with the bears showing little strength. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline and make new lows today. Today's strategy: Short at 59.20, stop loss at 59.70, target 58.20.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.