On Thursday (December 11th) in Asian trading, crude oil prices continued to rise slightly, trading around $58.80 per barrel. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels last week, less than the market expectation of a 2.3 million barrel decline. Additionally, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, weakening the dollar and supporting a rebound in oil prices.

While global geopolitical risks are escalating, they are insufficient to offset the pressure of accumulating inventories. Recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have triggered geopolitical tensions, which should theoretically provide upward momentum for the oil market. However, as global fuel inventories continue to pile up, this risk premium is weakened. The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook indicates that global supply growth is outpacing demand, and inventories are projected to continue accumulating at a rate of 2 million barrels per day until 2026, limiting future upside potential for oil prices.

From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil prices continue to fluctuate narrowly between $58 and $60, with the candlestick pattern indicating limited bullish momentum. Prices have repeatedly encountered resistance near $60, while $58 has formed a temporary support level, resulting in a weak sideways trend in the short term. The MACD indicator shows a shortening momentum bar, and the RSI is hovering in the neutral zone, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious.

In the short term (1-hour chart), crude oil is suppressed by the moving average system and continued to decline, reaching a new low near $58.15. The short-term objective trend remains downward. The MACD indicator is running below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate slightly at lower levels in the early morning, and the intraday trend is expected to maintain a downward pace. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is to primarily sell on rallies and secondarily buy on dips. The short-term resistance level to watch is $60.5-$61.5, and the short-term support level is $57.5-$56.5.

Disclaimer: The article is contributed by the market analyst from Bitop market observation team. The content is solely for personal opinions and sharing. The analysis is time-sensitive and provided for reference and discussion only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky, so investing should be done cautiously.